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Stalowa Wola vs Rekord Bielsko Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 16:00

Stalowa Wola

PPG 1.36 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rekord Bielsko

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.3%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.6%1-110.1%1-26.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.6%3-16.0%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 55.6% 1.80 -8.4%

Draw 22.4% 31.3% 3.20 -28.3%

Away win 26.7% 26.3% 3.80 +1.5%

Over 2.5 62.2% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 62.2% 59.9% 1.67 +3.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.2%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 7.6%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stalowa Wola1.9

Rekord Bielsko1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STALOWA WOLA · PPG 1.36

REKORD BIELSKO · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Stalowa Wola (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -8.4%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -28.3%

Rekord Bielsko (A) 26.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stalowa Wola face Rekord Bielsko in Poland - II Liga - East on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stalowa Wola a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Rekord Bielsko 27%, so Stalowa Wola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Stalowa Wola and 1.3 for Rekord Bielsko (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stalowa Wola are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.31 for Rekord Bielsko. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Stalowa Wola vs Rekord Bielsko Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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