Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B / Gualaceo SC vs El Nacional
Gualaceo SC vs El Nacional Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B
Relegation Group · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:30
// Model verdict
Home 55% chance
xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 41 resolved predictions
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%
Form & verdict
GUALACEO SC · PPG 1.64
EL NACIONAL · PPG 0.45
xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Gualaceo SC face El Nacional in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gualaceo SC a 55% chance, the draw 28% and El Nacional 17%, so Gualaceo SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gualaceo SC and 0.4 for El Nacional (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gualaceo SC are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.45 for El Nacional. This match finished 3-0.