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Grobničan Čavle vs Varteks Varaždin Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:30

Grobničan Čavle

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Varteks Varaždin

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.8%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.9%1-111.3%1-27.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.4%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.1%3-15.2%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 48.8% 2.05 -9.2%

Draw 26.6% 28.6% 3.50 -4.1%

Away win 29.0% 34.7% 2.88 -9.9%

Over 2.5 53.4% 57.8% 1.73 -7.6%

Over 3.5 31.5% 36.5% 2.74 -13.7%

BTTS 54.3% 63.7% 1.57 -14.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.3% 1.95 -4.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 41.2% 2.43 -11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.3%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–0✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grobničan Čavle1.7

Varteks Varaždin1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GROBNIČAN ČAVLE · PPG 1.23

VARTEKS VARAŽDIN · PPG 0.98

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Grobničan Čavle (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -9.2%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.1%

Varteks Varaždin (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grobničan Čavle face Varteks Varaždin in Croatia - Second NL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grobničan Čavle a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Varteks Varaždin 29%, so Grobničan Čavle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Grobničan Čavle and 1.3 for Varteks Varaždin (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grobničan Čavle are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 0.98 for Varteks Varaždin. This match finished 1-0.

Grobničan Čavle vs Varteks Varaždin Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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