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Friska Viljor vs Umea FF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Relegation Round ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Friska Viljor

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Umea FF

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.3%0-22.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-04.7%1-17.5%1-26.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.4%2-18.6%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.1%3-16.6%3-25.2%3-32.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-16.4%4+-25.1%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 28.3% — — —

Over 2.5 68.2% — — —

Over 3.5 47.9% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Friska Viljor2.3

Umea FF1.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 47.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FRISKA VILJOR · PPG 1.29

UMEA FF · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Friska Viljor (H) 50.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Umea FF (A) 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Friska Viljor face Umea FF in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Friska Viljor a 50% chance, the draw 21% and Umea FF 28%, so Friska Viljor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Friska Viljor and 1.6 for Umea FF (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Friska Viljor are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.29 for Umea FF. This match finished 1-4.

Friska Viljor vs Umea FF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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