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Warta Gorzów vs Zagłębie Lubin II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Warta Gorzów

PPG 1.68 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Zagłębie Lubin II

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.6%0-25.2%0-32.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-06.6%1-110.5%1-28.3%1-34.4%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.4%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.8%3-14.4%3-23.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 40.3% 2.48 -3.8%

Draw 23.9% 29.0% 3.45 -10.5%

Away win 37.3% 42.9% 2.33 -13.1%

Over 2.5 62.0% 66.7% 1.50 -7.0%

Over 3.5 39.1% 43.9% 2.28 -10.8%

BTTS 61.4% 70.9% 1.41 -13.4%

Home O1.5 48.0% 52.1% 1.92 -7.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 53.2% 1.88 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 14.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.4%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Warta Gorzów1.6

Zagłębie Lubin II1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WARTA GORZÓW · PPG 1.68

ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN II · PPG 1.61

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Warta Gorzów (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -3.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.5%

Zagłębie Lubin II (A) 37.3%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Warta Gorzów face Zagłębie Lubin II in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Warta Gorzów a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Zagłębie Lubin II 37%, so Warta Gorzów are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Warta Gorzów and 1.6 for Zagłębie Lubin II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Warta Gorzów are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.61 for Zagłębie Lubin II. This match finished 0-2.

Warta Gorzów vs Zagłębie Lubin II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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