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Krško vs Dekani Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Krško

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dekani

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.2%0-26.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.5%1-112.1%1-28.6%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.6%2-17.9%2-25.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.4%3-13.5%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 26.0% 3.85 +34.4%

Draw 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%

Away win 41.5% 55.6% 1.80 -25.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 56.5% 1.77 -5.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.9% 2.95 -7.1%

BTTS 55.0% 59.9% 1.67 -8.2%

Home O1.5 37.2% 33.9% 2.95 +9.7%

Away O1.5 40.9% 55.6% 1.80 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.0%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Krško1.3

Dekani1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KRŠKO · PPG 1.27

DEKANI · PPG 0.80

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Krško (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +34.4%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%

Dekani (A) 41.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Krško face Dekani in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krško a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Dekani 42%, so Dekani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Krško and 1.4 for Dekani (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krško are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.80 for Dekani. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Krško vs Dekani Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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