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Storfors vs Fransta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Relegation Round ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:00

Storfors

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fransta

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.4%0-22.6%0-31.9%0-4+1.8%1 1-02.5%1-15.5%1-26.1%1-34.5%1-4+4.1%2 2-02.9%2-16.4%2-27.1%2-35.2%2-4+4.8%3 3-02.3%3-15.0%3-25.5%3-34.0%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-15.0%4+-25.5%4+-34.0%4+-4+3.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% — — —

Draw 20.1% — — —

Away win 36.0% — — —

Over 2.5 72.0% — — —

Over 3.5 52.7% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 64.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.4%

#2 2–2 7.1%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 1–2 6.1%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Storfors2.3

Fransta2.2

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STORFORS · PPG 1.00

FRANSTA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Storfors (H) 43.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fransta (A) 36.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Storfors face Fransta in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Storfors a 44% chance, the draw 20% and Fransta 36%, so Storfors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Storfors and 2.2 for Fransta (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Storfors are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Fransta. This match finished 3-0.

Storfors vs Fransta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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