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Nottingham Forest U21 vs Manchester City U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Nottingham Forest U21

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Manchester City U21

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-16.5%0-27.5%0-35.8%0-4+5.7%1 1-03.6%1-18.3%1-29.5%1-37.3%1-4+7.1%2 2-02.3%2-15.2%2-26.0%2-34.6%2-4+4.5%3 3-01.0%3-12.2%3-22.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 28.2% 3.55 -11.2%

Draw 21.1% 25.0% 4.00 -9.4%

Away win 55.9% 56.5% 1.77 -1.1%

Over 2.5 62.1% 69.0% 1.45 -10.0%

Over 3.5 39.3% 46.5% 2.15 -15.5%

BTTS 55.0% 69.4% 1.44 -20.8%

Home O1.5 37.1% 43.5% 2.30 -14.7%

Away O1.5 67.8% 64.5% 1.55 +5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob55.0%

A 56% / xG 1.3-2.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 1–3 7.3%

#5 2–1✓ 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nottingham Forest U211.3

Manchester City U212.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTTINGHAM FOREST U21 · PPG 1.37

MANCHESTER CITY U21 · PPG 1.41

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.04 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Nottingham Forest U21 (H) 22.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -11.2%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.4%

Manchester City U21 (A) 55.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nottingham Forest U21 face Manchester City U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nottingham Forest U21 a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Manchester City U21 56%, so Manchester City U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nottingham Forest U21 and 2.3 for Manchester City U21 (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nottingham Forest U21 are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.41 for Manchester City U21. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Nottingham Forest U21 vs Manchester City U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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