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Norwich City U21 vs Stoke City U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Norwich City U21

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Stoke City U21

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.2%0-23.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.7%1-18.6%1-26.6%1-33.3%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.1%3-16.2%3-24.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-15.2%4+-24.0%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 63.7% 1.57 -24.6%

Draw 24.5% 22.2% 4.50 +6.2%

Away win 27.5% 24.4% 4.10 +7.6%

Over 2.5 60.8% 75.2% 1.33 -19.1%

Over 3.5 39.3% 54.1% 1.85 -27.3%

BTTS 60.5% 72.5% 1.38 -16.5%

Home O1.5 59.6% 73.5% 1.36 -18.9%

Away O1.5 47.1% 43.5% 2.30 +8.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.5%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norwich City U212.1

Stoke City U211.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NORWICH CITY U21 · PPG 1.30

STOKE CITY U21 · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Norwich City U21 (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -24.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +6.2%

Stoke City U21 (A) 27.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norwich City U21 face Stoke City U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norwich City U21 a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Stoke City U21 28%, so Norwich City U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Norwich City U21 and 1.5 for Stoke City U21 (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norwich City U21 are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.30 for Stoke City U21. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Norwich City U21 vs Stoke City U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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