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IFK Umeå vs Umeå FC Akademi Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Relegation Round ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 18:00

IFK Umeå

PPG 0.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Umeå FC Akademi

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.5%0-26.3%0-34.1%0-4+3.1%1 1-04.8%1-19.4%1-29.2%1-36.0%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.5%2-16.9%2-26.7%2-34.3%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.7%3-13.3%3-23.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.7%4+-21.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 46.0% — — —

Over 2.5 64.2% — — —

Over 3.5 43.2% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 56.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Umeå1.5

Umeå FC Akademi1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK UMEÅ · PPG 0.38

UMEÅ FC AKADEMI · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IFK Umeå (H) 31.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Umeå FC Akademi (A) 46.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Umeå face Umeå FC Akademi in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Umeå a 31% chance, the draw 23% and Umeå FC Akademi 46%, so Umeå FC Akademi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for IFK Umeå and 1.9 for Umeå FC Akademi (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Umeå are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 0.71 for Umeå FC Akademi. This match finished 1-5.

IFK Umeå vs Umeå FC Akademi Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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