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Sunderland U21 vs Nottingham Forest U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 18:00

Sunderland U21

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nottingham Forest U21

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.2%0-24.4%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.4%1-110.6%1-27.6%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.6%3-15.2%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.2%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 39.2% 2.55 +16.5%

Draw 24.4% 26.7% 3.75 -5.1%

Away win 29.9% 43.5% 2.30 -18.7%

Over 2.5 61.5% 70.4% 1.42 -12.7%

Over 3.5 38.4% 48.8% 2.05 -21.3%

BTTS 60.8% 73.5% 1.36 -17.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.6% 1.83 -10.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 57.8% 1.73 -29.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sunderland U211.7

Nottingham Forest U211.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SUNDERLAND U21 · PPG 1.43

NOTTINGHAM FOREST U21 · PPG 1.37

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sunderland U21 (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +16.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.1%

Nottingham Forest U21 (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sunderland U21 face Nottingham Forest U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sunderland U21 a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Nottingham Forest U21 30%, so Sunderland U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sunderland U21 and 1.4 for Nottingham Forest U21 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sunderland U21 are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.37 for Nottingham Forest U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 5-1.

Sunderland U21 vs Nottingham Forest U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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