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Reading U21 vs Derby County U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 18:00

Reading U21

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Derby County U21

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.3%0-23.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.3%1-18.9%1-26.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.5%3-16.4%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.4%4+-23.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 48.8% 2.05 +6.2%

Draw 21.7% 26.3% 3.80 -10.5%

Away win 26.5% 34.5% 2.90 -13.9%

Over 2.5 65.0% 72.5% 1.38 -10.3%

Over 3.5 43.2% 51.3% 1.95 -15.8%

BTTS 63.1% 74.1% 1.35 -14.8%

Home O1.5 59.6% 62.5% 1.60 -4.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 52.4% 1.91 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 6.4%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reading U212.1

Derby County U211.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

READING U21 · PPG 1.43

DERBY COUNTY U21 · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Reading U21 (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +6.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.5%

Derby County U21 (A) 26.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reading U21 face Derby County U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reading U21 a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Derby County U21 27%, so Reading U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Reading U21 and 1.4 for Derby County U21 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reading U21 are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.91 for Derby County U21. This match finished 1-3.

Reading U21 vs Derby County U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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