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Newcastle United U21 vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 18:00

Newcastle United U21

PPG 1.24 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tottenham Hotspur U21

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.6%0-25.1%0-33.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.1%1-19.3%1-28.5%1-35.1%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.3%2-17.7%2-27.0%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.4%3-14.3%3-23.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.6%4+-22.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 37.7% 2.65 -5.4%

Draw 22.6% 26.3% 3.80 -8.5%

Away win 41.7% 46.5% 2.15 -10.3%

Over 2.5 64.6% 72.5% 1.38 -10.8%

Over 3.5 43.2% 51.3% 1.95 -15.8%

BTTS 63.1% 75.2% 1.33 -16.1%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.6% 1.83 -10.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 60.6% 1.65 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.1%

A 42% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–3✓ 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle United U211.7

Tottenham Hotspur U211.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE UNITED U21 · PPG 1.24

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR U21 · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle United U21 (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -5.4%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.5%

Tottenham Hotspur U21 (A) 41.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle United U21 face Tottenham Hotspur U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle United U21 a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Tottenham Hotspur U21 42%, so Tottenham Hotspur U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Newcastle United U21 and 1.8 for Tottenham Hotspur U21 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle United U21 are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.71 for Tottenham Hotspur U21. This match finished 1-3.

Newcastle United U21 vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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