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Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 44 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 18:45

Sheffield Utd

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Blackburn

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 56.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.9%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.7%1-111.5%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.5%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.2%3-15.2%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 54.1% 1.85 +4.9%

Draw 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -12.2%

Away win 18.9% 25.3% 3.95 -25.3%

Over 2.5 45.3% 52.6% 1.90 -13.9%

Over 3.5 24.0% 30.8% 3.25 -22.0%

BTTS 45.8% 56.5% 1.77 -18.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.8%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sheffield Utd1.7

Blackburn0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHEFFIELD UTD · PPG 1.48

BLACKBURN · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.48), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Sheffield Utd (H) 56.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +4.9%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.2%

Blackburn (A) 18.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sheffield Utd face Blackburn in England - Championship on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sheffield Utd a 57% chance, the draw 24% and Blackburn 19%, so Sheffield Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sheffield Utd and 0.8 for Blackburn (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.27 for Blackburn. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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