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Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Wed Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 44 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 18:45

Middlesbrough

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sheffield Wed

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Home 85% chance

Model probability 84.6% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-12.0%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.6%1-15.2%1-21.1%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.6%2-16.8%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.5%3-15.9%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-017.9%4+-17.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 84.6% 85.5% 1.17 -1.0%

Draw 11.5% 15.4% 6.50 -25.3%

Away win 3.9% 6.3% 16.00 -37.6%

Over 2.5 58.5% 73.5% 1.36 -20.4%

Over 3.5 36.1% 54.1% 1.85 -33.2%

BTTS 31.1% 52.6% 1.90 -40.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob31.1%

H 85% / xG 2.6-0.4 / O2.5 58% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.6%

#2 3–0 14.5%

#3 1–0✓ 12.6%

#4 4–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Middlesbrough2.6

Sheffield Wed0.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDDLESBROUGH · PPG 1.71

SHEFFIELD WED · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

85%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.71), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Middlesbrough (H) 84.6%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -1.0%

Draw 11.5%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -25.3%

Sheffield Wed (A) 3.9%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV -37.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Middlesbrough face Sheffield Wed in England - Championship on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Middlesbrough a 85% chance, the draw 12% and Sheffield Wed 4%, so Middlesbrough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Middlesbrough and 0.4 for Sheffield Wed (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Middlesbrough are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.38 for Sheffield Wed. This match finished 1-0.

Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Wed Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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