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Birmingham City vs Preston Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 44 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 18:45

Birmingham City

PPG 1.81 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Preston

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.0%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.1%1-112.2%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.3%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.7%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 60.6% 1.65 -15.7%

Draw 25.8% 27.0% 3.70 -4.5%

Away win 23.1% 19.6% 5.10 +17.8%

Over 2.5 44.5% 52.6% 1.90 -15.4%

Over 3.5 23.3% 30.8% 3.25 -24.3%

BTTS 47.4% 54.1% 1.85 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.4%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.1%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 2–1✓ 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Birmingham City1.5

Preston0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BIRMINGHAM CITY · PPG 1.81

PRESTON · PPG 1.24

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.24)

Win probability 1X2

Birmingham City (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -15.7%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.5%

Preston (A) 23.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Birmingham City face Preston in England - Championship on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Birmingham City a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Preston 23%, so Birmingham City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Birmingham City and 0.9 for Preston (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Birmingham City are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.24 for Preston. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Birmingham City vs Preston Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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