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Real Sociedad vs Getafe Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 33 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 18:00

Real Sociedad

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Getafe

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

// Model verdict

Home 51% chance

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+21.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.3%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.3%1-111.1%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.4%3-15.7%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 47.6% 2.10 +21.4%

Draw 23.3% 32.3% 3.10 -27.8%

Away win 18.9% 27.4% 3.65 -31.0%

Over 2.5 49.7% 40.8% 2.45 +21.8%

Over 3.5 27.7% 21.1% 4.75 +31.6%

BTTS 49.1% 47.6% 2.10 +3.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.1%

H 58% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 11.1%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Sociedad1.8

Getafe0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SOCIEDAD · PPG 1.75

GETAFE · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Real Sociedad (H) 57.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +21.4%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -27.8%

Getafe (A) 18.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -31.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Sociedad face Getafe in Spain - La Liga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Sociedad a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Getafe 19%, so Real Sociedad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Real Sociedad and 0.9 for Getafe (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Sociedad are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Getafe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Real Sociedad vs Getafe Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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