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Elche vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 17:00

Elche

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atletico Madrid

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.4%0-26.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.7%1-111.6%1-28.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.3%2-18.0%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.4%3-13.7%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 43.9% 2.28 -20.7%

Draw 24.8% 26.3% 3.80 -5.8%

Away win 40.5% 36.8% 2.72 +10.2%

Over 2.5 55.1% 59.9% 1.67 -8.0%

Over 3.5 32.7% 37.0% 2.70 -11.7%

BTTS 58.2% 63.7% 1.57 -8.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.2%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–1 8.4%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elche1.4

Atletico Madrid1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ELCHE · PPG 1.75

ATLETICO MADRID · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Elche (H) 34.8%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -20.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.8%

Atletico Madrid (A) 40.5%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elche face Atletico Madrid in Spain - La Liga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elche a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Atletico Madrid 41%, so Atletico Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Elche and 1.5 for Atletico Madrid (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elche are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.13 for Atletico Madrid. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Elche vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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