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Leeds United U21 vs West Bromwich Albion U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

Leeds United U21

PPG 0.98 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

West Bromwich Albion U21

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.7%0-24.1%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.2%1-110.2%1-27.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.1%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.8%3-15.4%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.6%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 41.7% 2.40 +13.8%

Draw 23.3% 28.6% 3.50 -11.1%

Away win 29.3% 43.5% 2.30 -19.6%

Over 2.5 62.8% 69.4% 1.44 -9.6%

Over 3.5 39.4% 48.5% 2.06 -18.8%

BTTS 61.3% 71.4% 1.40 -14.2%

Home O1.5 48.8% 54.9% 1.82 -11.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 55.6% 1.80 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 1–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leeds United U211.8

West Bromwich Albion U211.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LEEDS UNITED U21 · PPG 0.98

WEST BROMWICH ALBION U21 · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leeds United U21 (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +13.8%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.1%

West Bromwich Albion U21 (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leeds United U21 face West Bromwich Albion U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leeds United U21 a 47% chance, the draw 23% and West Bromwich Albion U21 29%, so Leeds United U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Leeds United U21 and 1.4 for West Bromwich Albion U21 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leeds United U21 are averaging 0.98 points per game versus 0.78 for West Bromwich Albion U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 4-3.

Leeds United U21 vs West Bromwich Albion U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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