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Middlesbrough U21 vs Norwich City U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Middlesbrough U21

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Norwich City U21

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.9%0-22.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.1%1-18.5%1-25.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.9%3-16.8%3-24.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-16.2%4+-24.3%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 56.5% 1.77 -6.2%

Draw 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -8.7%

Away win 24.5% 27.4% 3.65 -6.3%

Over 2.5 65.9% 69.0% 1.45 -4.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 46.5% 2.15 -6.5%

BTTS 63.2% 70.4% 1.42 -10.3%

Home O1.5 65.1% 64.5% 1.55 +0.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 43.5% 2.30 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Middlesbrough U212.2

Norwich City U211.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDDLESBROUGH U21 · PPG 1.43

NORWICH CITY U21 · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Middlesbrough U21 (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -6.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.7%

Norwich City U21 (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Middlesbrough U21 face Norwich City U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Middlesbrough U21 a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Norwich City U21 25%, so Middlesbrough U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Middlesbrough U21 and 1.4 for Norwich City U21 (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Middlesbrough U21 are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.04 for Norwich City U21. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Middlesbrough U21 vs Norwich City U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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