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Riga FC vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 8 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:00

Riga FC

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ogre United

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 86.6% vs bookmaker-implied 98.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.3%1-13.9%1-21.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.0%2-16.7%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.3%3-17.7%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-021.2%4+-115.9%4+-25.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.6% 98.0% 1.02 -11.7%

Draw 8.8% 10.5% 9.50 -16.4%

Away win 4.6% 1.5% 67.00 +208.2%

Over 2.5 78.7% 80.0% 1.25 -1.6%

Over 3.5 60.0% 61.7% 1.62 -2.8%

BTTS 51.0% 31.3% 3.20 +63.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.0%

H 87% / xG 3.4-0.7 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.3%

#2 2–0 9.0%

#3 4–0✓ 8.8%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC3.4

Ogre United0.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.7% · O3.5 PROB 60.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC · PPG 2.00

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC (H) 86.6%

ODDS 1.02 · IMPLIED 98.0% EV -11.7%

Draw 8.8%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV -16.4%

Ogre United (A) 4.6%

ODDS 67.00 · IMPLIED 1.5% EV +208.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC a 87% chance, the draw 9% and Ogre United 5%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Riga FC and 0.7 for Ogre United (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +208.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Riga FC vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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