Riga FC vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Latvia - Virsliga Regular Season - 8 Skonto stadions· Riga Wednesday, April 22, 2026 16:00

Riga FC PPG 2.00

4-0 HIT CS3

Ogre United PPG 0.00

Away· +208.2% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC a 87% chance, the draw 9% and Ogre United 5%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Riga FC and 0.7 for Ogre United (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +208.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 86.6%

Odds: 1.02 EV: -11.7%

Draw 8.8%

Odds: 9.50 EV: -16.4%

Away 4.6%

Odds: 67.00 EV: +208.2%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 78.7% Odds: 1.25 -1.6%

Over 3.5 60.0% Odds: 1.62 -2.8%

BTTS 51.0% Odds: 3.20 +63.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 4-0 ✔

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Riga FC

3.43

Ogre United

0.75

Model SuggestionHome -11.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -11.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+208.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5/Under 61%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 50% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data