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Antwerp vs Genk Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:45

Antwerp

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDL ·

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Genk

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.9%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.9%1-111.5%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.0%3-15.4%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 32.3% 3.10 +58.1%

Draw 24.6% 28.6% 3.50 -8.3%

Away win 24.3% 45.5% 2.20 -27.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.6% 1.83 -1.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

BTTS 54.7% 60.6% 1.65 -9.7%

Home O1.5 48.4% 38.5% 2.60 +25.8%

Away O1.5 34.0% 48.8% 2.05 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antwerp1.7

Genk1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTWERP · PPG 1.70

GENK · PPG 1.24

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Antwerp (H) 51.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +58.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.3%

Genk (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -27.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antwerp face Genk in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antwerp a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Genk 24%, so Antwerp are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Antwerp and 1.1 for Genk (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antwerp are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.24 for Genk. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +53.9%. This match finished 4-4.

Antwerp vs Genk Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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