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Umeå FC Akademi vs Fransta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Relegation Round ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:30

Umeå FC Akademi

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLW

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fransta

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.0%0-22.8%0-31.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-03.7%1-16.9%1-26.3%1-33.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.2%2-17.8%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.1%3 3-03.2%3-15.9%3-25.4%3-33.3%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.7%4+-25.2%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 33.4% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 47.6% — — —

BTTS 69.0% — — —

Home O1.5 65.1% — — —

Away O1.5 54.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.9%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umeå FC Akademi2.3

Fransta1.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEÅ FC AKADEMI · PPG 1.00

FRANSTA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Umeå FC Akademi (H) 45.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fransta (A) 33.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Umeå FC Akademi face Fransta in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umeå FC Akademi a 45% chance, the draw 21% and Fransta 33%, so Umeå FC Akademi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Umeå FC Akademi and 1.8 for Fransta (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umeå FC Akademi are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Fransta. This match finished 2-4.

Umeå FC Akademi vs Fransta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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