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Wycombe vs Plymouth Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Wycombe

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLL ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Plymouth

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+22.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.8%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.6%1-110.7%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-16.0%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 40.0% 2.50 +28.5%

Draw 25.0% 29.4% 3.40 -9.0%

Away win 23.6% 37.6% 2.66 -22.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

BTTS 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Home O1.5 54.3% 44.4% 2.25 +22.2%

Away O1.5 35.6% 42.6% 2.35 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wycombe1.8

Plymouth1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WYCOMBE · PPG 1.71

PLYMOUTH · PPG 1.63

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Wycombe (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +28.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.0%

Plymouth (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wycombe face Plymouth in England - League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wycombe a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Plymouth 24%, so Wycombe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Wycombe and 1.1 for Plymouth (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wycombe are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.63 for Plymouth. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +37.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Wycombe vs Plymouth Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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