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Wigan vs Leyton Orient Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Wigan

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leyton Orient

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.9%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.8%1-111.5%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.0%3-15.4%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 44.2% 2.26 +7.1%

Draw 26.8% 31.7% 3.15 -9.3%

Away win 25.8% 31.3% 3.20 -10.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 30.9% 26.0% 3.85 +19.0%

BTTS 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Home O1.5 48.6% 42.6% 2.35 +14.2%

Away O1.5 34.5% 33.3% 3.00 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wigan1.7

Leyton Orient1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WIGAN · PPG 1.57

LEYTON ORIENT · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Wigan (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +7.1%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -9.3%

Leyton Orient (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wigan face Leyton Orient in England - League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wigan a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Leyton Orient 26%, so Wigan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Wigan and 1.1 for Leyton Orient (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wigan are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.12 for Leyton Orient. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Wigan vs Leyton Orient Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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