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AFC Wimbledon vs Reading Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

AFC Wimbledon

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LDW ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Reading

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.5%0-25.5%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.7%1-111.3%1-28.3%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.5%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.9%3-14.3%3-23.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 39.2% 2.55 -2.6%

Draw 25.3% 30.3% 3.30 -9.9%

Away win 36.5% 37.6% 2.66 -2.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.2% 3.55 +12.2%

BTTS 54.7% 57.8% 1.73 -5.4%

Home O1.5 40.0% 40.8% 2.45 -2.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 39.2% 2.55 +5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.7%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0✓ 5.1%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Wimbledon1.5

Reading1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC WIMBLEDON · PPG 1.32

READING · PPG 1.26

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AFC Wimbledon (H) 38.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -2.6%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.9%

Reading (A) 36.5%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Wimbledon face Reading in England - League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Wimbledon a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Reading 37%, so AFC Wimbledon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for AFC Wimbledon and 1.5 for Reading (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.26 for Reading. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 0-0.

AFC Wimbledon vs Reading Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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