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Swindon Town vs Cheltenham Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Swindon Town

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cheltenham

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.2%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.7%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.2%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 57.5% 1.74 -17.5%

Draw 28.2% 27.4% 3.65 +1.8%

Away win 24.4% 22.2% 4.50 +5.9%

Over 2.5 50.1% 54.6% 1.83 -8.3%

Over 3.5 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

BTTS 49.4% 58.8% 1.70 -16.0%

Home O1.5 47.4% 56.5% 1.77 -16.1%

Away O1.5 32.3% 30.3% 3.30 +6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.4%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1✓ 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Swindon Town1.6

Cheltenham1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SWINDON TOWN · PPG 1.63

CHELTENHAM · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Swindon Town (H) 47.4%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -17.5%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +1.8%

Cheltenham (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Swindon Town face Cheltenham in England - League Two on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Swindon Town a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Cheltenham 24%, so Swindon Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Swindon Town and 1.0 for Cheltenham (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Swindon Town are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.12 for Cheltenham. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Swindon Town vs Cheltenham Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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