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Shrewsbury vs Barnet Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Shrewsbury

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWL ·

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Barnet

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-112.1%0-29.1%0-34.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.1%1-112.3%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.1%2-16.2%2-24.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.4%3-12.1%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.0% 25.6% 3.90 +0.8%

Draw 27.7% 28.6% 3.50 -1.8%

Away win 46.2% 52.6% 1.90 -12.2%

Over 2.5 50.1% 51.3% 1.95 -2.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 29.4% 3.40 -2.7%

BTTS 49.1% 56.5% 1.77 -13.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 31.3% 3.20 -2.1%

Away O1.5 45.8% 51.3% 1.95 -10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob49.1%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 8.0%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shrewsbury1.0

Barnet1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SHREWSBURY · PPG 1.45

BARNET · PPG 1.66

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shrewsbury (H) 26.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +0.8%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.8%

Barnet (A) 46.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shrewsbury face Barnet in England - League Two on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shrewsbury a 26% chance, the draw 28% and Barnet 46%, so Barnet are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Shrewsbury and 1.5 for Barnet (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shrewsbury are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.66 for Barnet. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Shrewsbury vs Barnet Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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