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Fleetwood Town vs Gillingham Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Fleetwood Town

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gillingham

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDD ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.7%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-111.3%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.5%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 52.6% 1.90 -1.2%

Draw 26.3% 28.6% 3.50 -4.8%

Away win 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -9.2%

Over 2.5 50.1% 51.3% 1.95 -2.3%

Over 3.5 28.3% 29.4% 3.40 -2.3%

BTTS 48.3% 57.1% 1.75 -15.5%

Home O1.5 48.8% 51.3% 1.95 -4.8%

Away O1.5 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.3%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fleetwood Town1.7

Gillingham0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FLEETWOOD TOWN · PPG 1.45

GILLINGHAM · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fleetwood Town (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -1.2%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.8%

Gillingham (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fleetwood Town face Gillingham in England - League Two on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fleetwood Town a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Gillingham 22%, so Fleetwood Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Fleetwood Town and 0.9 for Gillingham (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.15 for Gillingham. This match finished 0-0.

Fleetwood Town vs Gillingham Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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