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Colchester vs Oldham Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Colchester

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWL ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Oldham

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-110.4%0-26.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.0%1-113.0%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.9%2-18.1%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.9%3-13.4%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 40.8% 2.45 -12.0%

Draw 28.6% 29.4% 3.40 -1.7%

Away win 35.5% 36.8% 2.72 -3.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 52.6% 1.90 -14.9%

Over 3.5 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

BTTS 49.2% 59.9% 1.67 -17.8%

Home O1.5 36.0% 43.5% 2.30 -17.2%

Away O1.5 35.9% 40.8% 2.45 -12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

D 29% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colchester1.3

Oldham1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

COLCHESTER · PPG 1.55

OLDHAM · PPG 1.37

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Colchester (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -12.0%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -1.7%

Oldham (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colchester face Oldham in England - League Two on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colchester a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Oldham 36%, so Colchester are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Colchester and 1.2 for Oldham (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colchester are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.37 for Oldham. This match finished 2-1.

Colchester vs Oldham Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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