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Arsenal U21 vs Crystal Palace U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Arsenal U21

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

DD ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Crystal Palace U21

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.3%0-24.8%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.8%1-110.4%1-28.0%1-34.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.7%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.1%3-14.8%3-23.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.9%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 42.9% 2.33 +0.4%

Draw 23.1% 27.0% 3.70 -8.7%

Away win 33.8% 40.0% 2.50 -15.5%

Over 2.5 62.7% 67.6% 1.48 -7.2%

Over 3.5 39.4% 45.5% 2.20 -13.3%

BTTS 61.6% 70.4% 1.42 -12.5%

Home O1.5 48.1% 54.6% 1.83 -12.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 52.6% 1.90 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.4%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–0 5.6%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal U211.7

Crystal Palace U211.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL U21 · PPG 1.63

CRYSTAL PALACE U21 · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal U21 (H) 43.1%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +0.4%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.7%

Crystal Palace U21 (A) 33.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal U21 face Crystal Palace U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal U21 a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Crystal Palace U21 34%, so Arsenal U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Arsenal U21 and 1.5 for Crystal Palace U21 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal U21 are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.35 for Crystal Palace U21. This match finished 1-1.

Arsenal U21 vs Crystal Palace U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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