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PPJ vs MyPa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 16:00

PPJ

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

MyPa

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.2%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.6%1-16.1%1-23.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.9%2-18.6%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.5%3-18.2%3-24.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-010.6%4+-111.6%4+-26.3%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 76.9% 1.30 -15.6%

Draw 16.0% 20.0% 5.00 -12.0%

Away win 19.1% 14.3% 7.00 +20.2%

Over 2.5 67.4% 80.0% 1.25 -15.8%

Over 3.5 47.2% 63.7% 1.57 -25.9%

BTTS 61.6% 71.4% 1.40 -13.8%

Home O1.5 73.3% 82.0% 1.22 -10.6%

Away O1.5 34.7% 38.2% 2.62 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 30.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 65% / xG 2.8-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–0 7.5%

#5 1–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PPJ2.8

MyPa1.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PPJ · PPG 1.00

MYPA · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

xG gap +1.74 for Home, but form 1.00 vs 0.88 doesn't confirm

Win probability 1X2

PPJ (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -15.6%

Draw 16.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -12.0%

MyPa (A) 19.1%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

PPJ face MyPa in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PPJ a 65% chance, the draw 16% and MyPa 19%, so PPJ are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for PPJ and 1.1 for MyPa (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PPJ are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.88 for MyPa. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.0%.

PPJ vs MyPa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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