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Bristol Rovers vs Newport County Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Bristol Rovers

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWW ·

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Newport County

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.3%0-25.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.2%1-111.4%1-27.9%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.8%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.3%3-14.6%3-23.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 59.2% 1.69 -33.9%

Draw 25.7% 26.3% 3.80 -1.4%

Away win 35.2% 21.3% 4.70 +65.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.6% 1.83 -1.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

BTTS 54.7% 57.1% 1.75 -4.3%

Home O1.5 45.2% 57.1% 1.75 -20.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 28.6% 3.50 +44.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bristol Rovers1.6

Newport County1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISTOL ROVERS · PPG 1.57

NEWPORT COUNTY · PPG 1.12

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bristol Rovers (H) 39.1%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -33.9%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -1.4%

Newport County (A) 35.2%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +65.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bristol Rovers face Newport County in England - League Two on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bristol Rovers a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Newport County 35%, so Bristol Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bristol Rovers and 1.4 for Newport County (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bristol Rovers are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.12 for Newport County. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +44.6%. This match finished 5-3.

Bristol Rovers vs Newport County Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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