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Fulham U21 vs Burnley U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Fulham U21

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Burnley U21

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.1%0-22.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.8%1-17.5%1-24.9%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.1%2-19.2%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.8%3-17.5%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-18.2%4+-25.3%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 58.8% 1.70 -4.6%

Draw 21.0% 24.4% 4.10 -8.3%

Away win 22.9% 26.3% 3.80 -7.8%

Over 2.5 67.3% 72.5% 1.38 -7.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 51.3% 1.95 -15.2%

BTTS 63.2% 72.5% 1.38 -12.8%

Home O1.5 65.1% 69.0% 1.45 -5.6%

Away O1.5 37.9% 44.4% 2.25 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fulham U212.4

Burnley U211.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FULHAM U21 · PPG 1.59

BURNLEY U21 · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fulham U21 (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -4.6%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.3%

Burnley U21 (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fulham U21 face Burnley U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fulham U21 a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Burnley U21 23%, so Fulham U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Fulham U21 and 1.3 for Burnley U21 (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fulham U21 are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.24 for Burnley U21. This match finished 4-3.

Fulham U21 vs Burnley U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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