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Everton U21 vs Liverpool U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Regular Season ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Everton U21

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Liverpool U21

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.0%0-23.8%0-32.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-04.0%1-17.8%1-27.5%1-34.8%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.0%2-17.6%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.6%3-15.0%3-24.8%3-33.1%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.8%4+-23.6%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 40.0% 2.50 +7.2%

Draw 21.7% 26.3% 3.80 -10.5%

Away win 35.4% 44.4% 2.25 -20.3%

Over 2.5 67.3% 73.5% 1.36 -8.5%

Over 3.5 47.1% 51.8% 1.93 -9.1%

BTTS 65.9% 76.9% 1.30 -14.3%

Home O1.5 54.9% 57.1% 1.75 -3.9%

Away O1.5 55.2% 59.9% 1.67 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob65.9%

H 43% / xG 2.0-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 1–1✓ 7.8%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton U212.0

Liverpool U211.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON U21 · PPG 1.37

LIVERPOOL U21 · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Everton U21 (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +7.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.5%

Liverpool U21 (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton U21 face Liverpool U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton U21 a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Liverpool U21 35%, so Everton U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Everton U21 and 1.9 for Liverpool U21 (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton U21 are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.43 for Liverpool U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Everton U21 vs Liverpool U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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