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Standard Liege vs RAAL La Louvière Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Standard Liege

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

RAAL La Louvière

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.4%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.0%1-111.1%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.1%3-15.7%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 54.1% 1.85 -6.9%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 25.4% 24.4% 4.10 +2.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 48.8% 2.05 +10.5%

Over 3.5 33.3% 26.7% 3.75 +24.9%

BTTS 54.7% 54.1% 1.85 +1.2%

Home O1.5 48.8% 50.0% 2.00 -2.4%

Away O1.5 35.6% 28.2% 3.55 +26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Standard Liege1.7

RAAL La Louvière1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

STANDARD LIEGE · PPG 1.20

RAAL LA LOUVIÈRE · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Standard Liege (H) 50.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -6.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

RAAL La Louvière (A) 25.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Standard Liege face RAAL La Louvière in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Standard Liege a 50% chance, the draw 24% and RAAL La Louvière 25%, so Standard Liege are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Standard Liege and 1.1 for RAAL La Louvière (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Standard Liege are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.89 for RAAL La Louvière. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Standard Liege vs RAAL La Louvière Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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