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Umea FF vs IFK Umeå Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Relegation Round ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:00

Umea FF

PPG 0.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

IFK Umeå

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.79 for Home, form 0.71 vs 0.17 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.8%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.5%1-15.4%1-23.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.1%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.7%3-18.1%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-112.7%4+-27.7%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% — — —

Draw 15.4% — — —

Away win 20.8% — — —

Over 2.5 70.6% — — —

Over 3.5 48.1% — — —

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 78.4% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 1–1 5.4%

#4 1–2 3.3%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umea FF3.0

IFK Umeå1.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEA FF · PPG 0.71

IFK UMEÅ · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.79 for Home, form 0.71 vs 0.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Umea FF (H) 63.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

IFK Umeå (A) 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Umea FF face IFK Umeå in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umea FF a 64% chance, the draw 15% and IFK Umeå 21%, so Umea FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Umea FF and 1.2 for IFK Umeå (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umea FF are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 0.17 for IFK Umeå. This match finished 4-0.

Umea FF vs IFK Umeå Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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