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Flora II vs Viimsi Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 24 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:30

Flora II

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Viimsi

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.5%0-25.3%0-33.4%0-4+2.5%1 1-04.7%1-19.0%1-28.6%1-35.5%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.8%2-17.3%2-27.0%2-34.5%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.1%3-14.0%3-23.8%3-32.4%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.3%4+-22.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 31.3% 3.20 +11.4%

Draw 22.1% 25.0% 4.00 -7.0%

Away win 43.2% 54.6% 1.83 -20.9%

Over 2.5 64.7% 73.5% 1.36 -12.0%

Over 3.5 43.5% 58.5% 1.71 -25.6%

BTTS 63.2% 75.2% 1.33 -15.9%

Home O1.5 47.4% 53.8% 1.86 -11.8%

Away O1.5 55.2% 69.4% 1.44 -20.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.2%

A 43% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1✓ 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flora II1.6

Viimsi1.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORA II · PPG 1.73

VIIMSI · PPG 1.85

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Flora II (H) 34.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +11.4%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.0%

Viimsi (A) 43.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flora II face Viimsi in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flora II a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Viimsi 43%, so Viimsi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Flora II and 1.9 for Viimsi (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flora II are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.85 for Viimsi. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Flora II vs Viimsi Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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