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Atletico FC vs Cumbayá Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 19:00

Atletico FC

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Cumbayá

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.1%0-18.7%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.5%1-110.9%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-16.9%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.7%3-12.9%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% — — —

Draw 30.1% — — —

Away win 21.2% — — —

Over 2.5 34.5% — — —

Over 3.5 18.2% — — —

BTTS 43.6% — — —

Home O1.5 37.3% — — —

Away O1.5 16.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.5%

#2 0–0 17.1%

#3 2–0 13.5%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico FC1.3

Cumbayá0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO FC · PPG 2.10

CUMBAYÁ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico FC (H) 48.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cumbayá (A) 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico FC face Cumbayá in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico FC a 49% chance, the draw 30% and Cumbayá 21%, so Atletico FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atletico FC and 0.5 for Cumbayá (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico FC are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.00 for Cumbayá. This match finished 3-0.

Atletico FC vs Cumbayá Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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