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Tartu Welco vs FCI Levadia II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 24 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 12:00

Tartu Welco

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

FCI Levadia II

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.7%0-21.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.6%1-15.1%1-23.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.5%2-17.7%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.5%3-17.7%3-25.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-112.3%4+-28.7%4+-34.0%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% 62.5% 1.60 +1.9%

Draw 15.4% 23.8% 4.20 -21.2%

Away win 20.8% 25.6% 3.90 -11.3%

Over 2.5 71.8% 80.0% 1.25 -10.3%

Over 3.5 49.5% 60.6% 1.65 -18.3%

BTTS 63.2% 76.9% 1.30 -17.8%

Home O1.5 78.4% 75.8% 1.32 +3.5%

Away O1.5 41.2% 39.2% 2.55 +5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 64% / xG 3.0-1.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 1–1 5.1%

#4 4–1 5.8%

#5 1–2 3.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tartu Welco3.0

FCI Levadia II1.4

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TARTU WELCO · PPG 2.18

FCI LEVADIA II · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 2.18 vs 1.20 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tartu Welco (H) 63.7%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +1.9%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -21.2%

FCI Levadia II (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tartu Welco face FCI Levadia II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tartu Welco a 64% chance, the draw 15% and FCI Levadia II 21%, so Tartu Welco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Tartu Welco and 1.4 for FCI Levadia II (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tartu Welco are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.20 for FCI Levadia II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 4-2.

Tartu Welco vs FCI Levadia II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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