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Nõmme Kalju II vs Tallinna Kalev Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 24 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 12:00

Nõmme Kalju II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tallinna Kalev

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.5%0-25.9%0-34.3%0-4+3.8%1 1-03.8%1-18.3%1-29.0%1-36.4%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.3%2-26.8%2-34.9%2-4+4.4%3 3-01.5%3-13.2%3-23.4%3-32.5%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.8% 27.0% 3.70 -2.7%

Draw 21.2% 25.6% 3.90 -10.4%

Away win 53.0% 59.9% 1.67 -11.5%

Over 2.5 65.0% 73.5% 1.36 -11.6%

Over 3.5 43.5% 61.7% 1.62 -29.5%

BTTS 61.5% 76.9% 1.30 -20.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 54.3% 1.84 -26.4%

Away O1.5 57.7% 72.5% 1.38 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.5%

A 53% / xG 1.5-2.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.0%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 1–3 6.4%

#4 2–1 6.3%

#5 2–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nõmme Kalju II1.5

Tallinna Kalev2.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NÕMME KALJU II · PPG 1.00

TALLINNA KALEV · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.64 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Nõmme Kalju II (H) 25.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.7%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.4%

Tallinna Kalev (A) 53.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nõmme Kalju II face Tallinna Kalev in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nõmme Kalju II a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Tallinna Kalev 53%, so Tallinna Kalev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Nõmme Kalju II and 2.2 for Tallinna Kalev (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nõmme Kalju II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Tallinna Kalev. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Nõmme Kalju II vs Tallinna Kalev Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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