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FC Tallinn vs Nõmme United II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 24 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 12:00

FC Tallinn

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Nõmme United II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.2%0-24.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-04.2%1-18.0%1-27.6%1-34.8%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.0%2-17.7%2-27.3%2-34.6%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.6%3-14.9%3-24.6%3-32.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.6%4+-23.4%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 40.8% 2.45 -4.2%

Draw 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Away win 38.2% 45.5% 2.20 -16.0%

Over 2.5 64.7% 73.5% 1.36 -12.0%

Over 3.5 43.5% 56.8% 1.76 -23.4%

BTTS 63.2% 75.2% 1.33 -15.9%

Home O1.5 54.9% 58.8% 1.70 -6.7%

Away O1.5 55.2% 63.3% 1.58 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.2%

H 39% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.0%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Tallinn1.9

Nõmme United II1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC TALLINN · PPG 1.36

NÕMME UNITED II · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.00 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Tallinn (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -4.2%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

Nõmme United II (A) 38.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Tallinn face Nõmme United II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Tallinn a 39% chance, the draw 23% and Nõmme United II 38%, so FC Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Tallinn and 1.9 for Nõmme United II (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Tallinn are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.00 for Nõmme United II. This match finished 1-1.

FC Tallinn vs Nõmme United II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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