Today / Estonia - Esiliiga A / Elva vs Maardu

Elva vs Maardu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 24 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 09:30

Elva

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Maardu

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.7%0-22.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.8%1-18.3%1-25.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.8%3-16.8%3-24.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-16.3%4+-24.5%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 52.4% 1.91 -5.1%

Draw 22.0% 27.0% 3.70 -11.2%

Away win 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -7.2%

Over 2.5 65.0% 71.4% 1.40 -9.0%

Over 3.5 43.5% 52.6% 1.90 -17.3%

BTTS 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 69.4% 1.44 -6.3%

Away O1.5 41.2% 58.8% 1.70 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 50% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 5.9%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elva2.2

Maardu1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ELVA · PPG 1.64

MAARDU · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Elva (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -5.1%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.2%

Maardu (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elva face Maardu in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elva a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Maardu 28%, so Elva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Elva and 1.4 for Maardu (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elva are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.09 for Maardu. This match finished 1-0.

Elva vs Maardu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Esiliiga A Predictions