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Claypole vs Mercedes Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 24 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 18:00

Claypole

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mercedes

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-118.5%0-210.8%0-34.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.5%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-03.6%2-14.2%2-22.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.8%3-10.9%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 47.6% 2.10 -28.9%

Draw 29.1% 31.3% 3.20 -4.1%

Away win 46.2% 32.3% 3.10 +43.2%

Over 2.5 37.4% 45.5% 2.20 -17.7%

Over 3.5 21.1% 25.0% 4.00 -9.4%

BTTS 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Home O1.5 30.2% 43.5% 2.30 -30.5%

Away O1.5 34.7% 31.3% 3.20 +11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -68.8%

Bet Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob46.2%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.8%

#2 0–1 18.5%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–2 10.8%

#5 1–0 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Claypole0.7

Mercedes1.2

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CLAYPOLE · PPG 1.00

MERCEDES · PPG 1.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.50, combined xG 1.85 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Claypole (H) 24.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -28.9%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.1%

Mercedes (A) 46.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +43.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Claypole face Mercedes in Argentina - Primera C on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Claypole a 25% chance, the draw 29% and Mercedes 46%, so Mercedes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Claypole and 1.2 for Mercedes (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Claypole are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.08 for Mercedes. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%.

Claypole vs Mercedes Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera C Predictions