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Atlanta United II vs Chicago Fire II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 15:00

Atlanta United II

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chicago Fire II

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.7%0-22.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.0%1-16.6%1-25.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.2%2-26.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-04.1%3-16.8%3-25.6%3-33.0%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-17.6%4+-26.2%4+-33.4%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 28.0% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.3% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.4%

H 51% / xG 2.5-1.6 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlanta United II2.5

Chicago Fire II1.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTA UNITED II · PPG 1.91

CHICAGO FIRE II · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlanta United II (H) 51.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chicago Fire II (A) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta United II face Chicago Fire II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta United II a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Chicago Fire II 28%, so Atlanta United II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Atlanta United II and 1.6 for Chicago Fire II (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta United II are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.91 for Chicago Fire II.

Atlanta United II vs Chicago Fire II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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