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New England II vs Philadelphia Union II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 23:00

New England II

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Philadelphia Union II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-16.6%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.3%1-111.2%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.4%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.8%3-15.3%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 51.7% — — —

Over 3.5 30.0% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 18.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 2–0 12.1%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England II1.7

Philadelphia Union II0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND II · PPG 1.75

PHILADELPHIA UNION II · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New England II (H) 53.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Philadelphia Union II (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

New England II face Philadelphia Union II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England II a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Philadelphia Union II 22%, so New England II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for New England II and 0.8 for Philadelphia Union II (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England II are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Philadelphia Union II.

New England II vs Philadelphia Union II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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