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FC Cincinnati II vs Connecticut FC Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 22:00

FC Cincinnati II

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Connecticut FC

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.0%0-25.5%0-33.4%0-4+2.3%1 1-05.2%1-19.5%1-28.7%1-35.3%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.1%2-17.6%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.2%3-14.0%3-23.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.2%4+-22.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 42.1% — — —

Over 2.5 64.6% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 47.2% — — —

Away O1.5 51.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.3%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cincinnati II1.6

Connecticut FC1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CINCINNATI II · PPG 1.27

CONNECTICUT FC · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Cincinnati II (H) 35.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Connecticut FC (A) 42.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cincinnati II face Connecticut FC in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cincinnati II a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Connecticut FC 42%, so Connecticut FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Cincinnati II and 1.8 for Connecticut FC (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cincinnati II are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.44 for Connecticut FC.

FC Cincinnati II vs Connecticut FC Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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