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3 de Noviembre vs Atlético Tembetary Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 19:30

3 de Noviembre

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atlético Tembetary

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-112.6%0-29.3%0-34.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.2%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.1%2-16.1%2-24.5%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.3%3-12.0%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Draw 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

Away win 46.2% 45.5% 2.20 +1.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 47.6% 2.10 +4.8%

Over 3.5 29.5% 27.2% 3.68 +5.1%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 30.2% 34.6% 2.89 -12.7%

Away O1.5 45.1% 43.1% 2.32 +4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -21.4%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.1%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 12.6%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

3 de Noviembre1.0

Atlético Tembetary1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

3 DE NOVIEMBRE · PPG 0.67

ATLÉTICO TEMBETARY · PPG 1.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.50, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

3 de Noviembre (H) 27.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.1%

Atlético Tembetary (A) 46.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

3 de Noviembre face Atlético Tembetary in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 3 de Noviembre a 28% chance, the draw 26% and Atlético Tembetary 46%, so Atlético Tembetary are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for 3 de Noviembre and 1.5 for Atlético Tembetary (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 3 de Noviembre are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.22 for Atlético Tembetary. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.1%.

3 de Noviembre vs Atlético Tembetary Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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