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Guairena FC vs Independiente F.b.c. Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Guairena FC

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independiente F.b.c.

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.8%0-26.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.3%1-112.7%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.6%2-18.2%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.9%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% — — —

Draw 25.2% — — —

Away win 32.3% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -21.4%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guairena FC1.3

Independiente F.b.c.1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GUAIRENA FC · PPG 1.56

INDEPENDIENTE F.B.C. · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Guairena FC (H) 42.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Independiente F.b.c. (A) 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guairena FC face Independiente F.b.c. in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guairena FC a 43% chance, the draw 25% and Independiente F.b.c. 32%, so Guairena FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Guairena FC and 1.2 for Independiente F.b.c. (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guairena FC are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.22 for Independiente F.b.c..

Guairena FC vs Independiente F.b.c. Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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