Today / Paraguay - Division Intermedia / Benjamín Aceval vs 3 de Noviembre

Benjamín Aceval vs 3 de Noviembre Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

Benjamín Aceval

PPG 1.88 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

3 de Noviembre

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-14.8%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.2%1-19.1%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.5%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-15.5%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-14.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.3% 62.5% 1.60 -0.3%

Draw 21.5% 28.6% 3.50 -14.8%

Away win 16.3% 21.1% 4.75 -13.6%

Over 2.5 50.3% 55.6% 1.80 -9.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 34.2% 2.92 -9.5%

BTTS 48.4% 54.9% 1.82 -11.9%

Home O1.5 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Away O1.5 17.4% 25.1% 3.98 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -21.4%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 62% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.5%

#2 1–0 16.2%

#3 1–1 9.1%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 3–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benjamín Aceval1.9

3 de Noviembre0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BENJAMÍN ACEVAL · PPG 1.88

3 DE NOVIEMBRE · PPG 0.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Benjamín Aceval (H) 62.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -0.3%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.8%

3 de Noviembre (A) 16.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benjamín Aceval face 3 de Noviembre in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benjamín Aceval a 62% chance, the draw 22% and 3 de Noviembre 16%, so Benjamín Aceval are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Benjamín Aceval and 0.6 for 3 de Noviembre (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benjamín Aceval are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.12 for 3 de Noviembre. This match finished 2-1.

Benjamín Aceval vs 3 de Noviembre Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

More Paraguay - Division Intermedia Predictions